Why do people get so hung up on hunt code drawing odds? This isn’t Vegas for crying out loud.
So here is the poop, at least in Colorado when it comes to figuring out your Deer or Elk ‘Drawing Odds’.
First off, you need to find out how many tags were available LAST year. You can do this by looking at the annual hunt summary CPW releases in June. I call out LAST years numbers, as CPW does not announce how many tags will be available until AFTER the application deadline. So you have to go on last years numbers.
The second part is to figure out what the resident / non resident split is going to be. This can be 65/35 or 80/20 depending on how many points it takes to draw this huntcode.
Once you figure out the ‘split’, then you need to look at the how many people applied with a given number of points. This can be anywhere from 0 to 20+. Those with the most points, get the tag. This is based on last years numbers, and will change this year.
Let’s work through this logically using a made up Colorado Elk Huntcode. Let’s call it EIO123O1R. Last year this huntcode had 100 general quota tags. It historically takes 3 points for a resident to draw, so the split is 65/35 (65% go to residents). So this means there are 65 tags available for resident hunters.
100 people applied for this tag last year with the following points
- 60 – Zero points
- 60 – 1 point
- 60 – 2 points
- 60 – 3 points
- 20 – 4 points
Now let’s walk through how the tags will be handed out.
All 20 of the people with 4 points get their tags, leaving 45 tags.
Next, the 60 applicants with 3 points are vying for the remaining 45 tags. Not enough tags to go around. So we divide 60 / 45 to get 75%. This matches up with the annual CPW preference point article they publish.
Unfortunately CPW now has the Hybrid drawing which breaks this general ‘Draw Odds’ estimation.
Based on my research, pick a huntcode that takes one less point to draw then what you have. This will give you pretty close to a 100% chance of drawing.